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REC-30208Generated by margin-optimizer v2.4 · 4m ago
Hedge Q3 diesel exposure +3%
Portfolio fuel program
Margin uplift
+0.7pp
+$18.4K/mo
Service impact
0.0pp
OTD-equivalent
Confidence
82%
decision threshold 60%
Risk-adjusted score
72
0–100 composite
ROI multiple
7.3x
vs implementation cost
Expiry
8h 19m
after which trajectory shifts
AI Rationale
why this recommendationForward curve volatility σ 0.42; current hedge ratio 47% vs optimal 50%. +3% closes gap within policy bounds.
SHAP contributors
Fwd curve volatility
+0.50
Underhedged 3%
+0.30
Cost of carry
-0.10
Trajectory Impact
if accepted vs baseline14d projected
+0.7pp
Risk-adj
72/100
Expires
8h 19m
Counterfactual Comparison
alternative optionsOption
Margin
Service
Conf
+3% hedge
Returns to target ratio.
+0.7pp
0.0pp
82%
+8% hedge aggressive
Exceeds policy ceiling 55%.
+1.1pp
0.0pp
61%
Constraint Compliance
policy & contractHedge ceiling 55%
50% post-actionAcceptance Workflow
human-in-the-loop + RLHF capture RLHF signal capture
Audit & Provenance
data → model → recommendationModel
margin-optimizer v2.4
Training cutoff
2025-05-12
Features used
48
Causal uplift method
DoubleML
Counterfactual sample
2,418 sims
Validator
constraint-suite v1.7
Linked alerts
ALR-9912, ALR-9898
Approver pool
Logistics Director, Finance