Explainability Workspace
Prediction
PRED-7748-22
Shipment
SHP-0042189
Lane
CHI → DAL
Customer
Acme Manufacturing
Carrier
ARX Logistics
Model
margin-forecaster v3.2.1
Baseline
12.6%
Predicted
8.4%
-4.2pp
82%as of 2025-05-18 14:22:08 UTC
OverviewSHAP WaterfallReasoningConfidenceDriver EvolutionRisk DecompositionTrajectory ReplayFeature Interactions
AI Narrative
auto-generatedCarrier accessorial risk increased by 34%
-1.9ppARX accessorial filings rose 34% over 14 days, driven by detention and reweigh events on the CHI corridor.
Fuel volatility reduced predicted margin by 1.8%
-1.8pp7-day fuel σ at 0.42 vs 0.18 baseline; forward curve +9% Q3 amplifies downside on locked rate contracts.
Trajectory deterioration detected over 48 hours
-4.2ppPredicted margin slid from 12.6% → 8.4% across 6 successive re-scores, breaking the 1σ trajectory band.
Carrier reliability degradation increased margin risk
-1.1ppARX on-time % fell from 94 → 81 over 21 days; detention spike correlates r=0.78 with margin loss.
SHAP Waterfall
top contributorsBaseline
12.6%
Carrier accessorial risk
ARX p87
-1.90pp
91%
Fuel volatility 7d
σ 0.42
-1.80pp
88%
Detention frequency
3.1x peer
-1.10pp
84%
Spot vs contract gap
-6.4%
+0.90pp
86%
Lane congestion index
0.71
-0.70pp
79%
Equipment availability
high
+0.60pp
81%
Customer payment lag
+11d
-0.50pp
74%
Reweigh accuracy
0.97
+0.30pp
92%
Predicted margin
8.4%
Confidence
μ + 95% CIConfidence
82%
0%50%100%
decision threshold 60%
95% prediction interval
0%6.9–9.8% margin20%
Epistemic σ
0.41
Aleatoric σ
0.78
Calibration
0.94 ECE
Risk Decomposition
variance shareCarrier risk
38%Fuel exposure
26%Lane volatility
14%Customer credit
9%Accessorial drift
8%Residual
5%Prediction Trajectory
72h replay · 1σ band7 re-scores · 72h window
Δ −4.2pp · 1.4σ break
Driver Evolution
signed pp Carrier Fuel Lane Customer
Feature Contribution Heatmap
feature × time-72h
-60h
-48h
-36h
-24h
-12h
now
Carrier accessorial risk
Fuel volatility 7d
Detention frequency
Lane congestion index
Customer payment lag
Spot vs contract gap
Equipment availability
Reweigh accuracy
Feature Interactions
pairwise| Carrier | Fuel | Detention | Lane | Customer | Equip | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrier | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.22 | -0.18 |
| Fuel | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| Detention | 0.78 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.31 | -0.22 |
| Lane | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.12 | -0.04 |
| Customer | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.02 |
| Equip | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.22 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 1.00 |
amplifying dampening
Historical Comparison
same lane · last 4 shipments| Shipment | Lane | Pred | Actual | Δ | Conf | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHP-0041002 | CHI→DAL | 9.1% | 8.7% | -0.4 | 81% | May 12 |
| SHP-0040788 | CHI→DAL | 10.3% | 9.9% | -0.4 | 85% | May 09 |
| SHP-0040221 | CHI→DAL | 11.7% | 12.1% | +0.4 | 88% | May 04 |
| SHP-0039804 | CHI→DAL | 12.9% | 13.2% | +0.3 | 90% | Apr 29 |