Home Recommendations HubDetail6 pending · 1.4pp avg uplift

REC-30221Generated by margin-optimizer v2.4 · 4m ago

Re-bid lane CHI → DAL

Lane CHI→DAL

+$48.2K/mo

Margin uplift

+2.1pp

+$48.2K/mo

Service impact

-0.2pp

OTD-equivalent

Confidence

92%

decision threshold 60%

Risk-adjusted score

0–100 composite

ROI multiple

14.2x

vs implementation cost

Expiry

4h 12m

after which trajectory shifts

AI Rationale

why this recommendation

Spot rates softened 6.4% over 14d; incumbent ARX quote now 11% above market median. Re-bidding to top-3 carriers projected to recover 2.1pp margin with negligible service impact (peer OTD parity within 0.4pp).

SHAP contributors

Market spot drop

+1.40

Peer OTD parity

+0.50

Carrier capacity surplus

+0.30

Switching friction

-0.10

Trajectory Impact

if accepted vs baseline

14d projected

+2.1pp

Risk-adj

86/100

Expires

4h 12m

Counterfactual Comparison

alternative options

Option

Margin

Service

Conf

Re-bid to top-3 carriers

Highest expected uplift, low service risk.

+2.1pp

-0.2pp

92%

Renegotiate with ARX only

Lower friction, preserves relationship; smaller uplift.

+1.2pp

0.0pp

84%

Shift 40% volume to spot

Higher upside but service risk on peak weeks.

+2.6pp

-1.1pp

71%

No action

Baseline drift continues.

0.0pp

100%

Constraint Compliance

policy & contract

Carrier diversification min 2

3 in pool

Contract notice ≥ 14d

21d remaining

OTD floor 92%

predicted 92.4%

Acceptance Workflow

human-in-the-loop + RLHF capture

RLHF signal capture

Audit & Provenance

data → model → recommendation

Model

margin-optimizer v2.4

Training cutoff

2025-05-12

Features used

Causal uplift method

DoubleML

Counterfactual sample

2,418 sims

Validator

constraint-suite v1.7

Linked alerts

ALR-9912, ALR-9898

Approver pool

Logistics Director, Finance