Simulation Controls
pre-execution sandboxScenario
Horizon14d
Confidence floor0.80
Monte Carlo runs2,418
Risk aversion λ0.35
Scenario Comparison
14-day projection · margin trajectoryScenario
Margin
Service
Cost Δ
Risk
Conf
Baseline (no action)
Continue current carrier mix and rate posture.
0.0pp
0.0pp
—
38
100%
Counter-offer ARX
Issue $35/hr counter-offer on detention clause.
+1.4pp
0.0pp
+$31.6K/mo
24
87%
Re-bid lane CHI→DAL
Open RFP to top-3 carriers; switch incumbent.
+2.1pp
-0.2pp
+$48.2K/mo
36
92%
Aggressive: re-tier ARX
Move ARX to backup; absorb capacity hit.
+1.8pp
-0.9pp
+$39.4K/mo
62
68%
Would-Have-Saved
counterfactual captureTodaycapture 75%
Captured
+$36.1K
Counterfactual ceiling
+$48.2K
This weekcapture 79%
Captured
+$248K
Counterfactual ceiling
+$312K
This monthcapture 83%
Captured
+$1.18M
Counterfactual ceiling
+$1.42M
Last 90 dayscapture 87%
Captured
+$3.62M
Counterfactual ceiling
+$4.18M