Explainability Workspace
Prediction
PRED-7748-22
Shipment
SHP-0042189
Lane
CHI → DAL
Customer
Acme Manufacturing
Carrier
ARX Logistics
Model
margin-forecaster v3.2.1
Baseline
12.6%
Predicted
8.4%
-4.2pp
82%as of 2025-05-18 14:22:08 UTC
OverviewSHAP WaterfallReasoningConfidenceDriver EvolutionRisk DecompositionTrajectory ReplayFeature Interactions
Why this prediction
AI rationaleCarrier accessorial risk increased by 34%
-1.9ppARX accessorial filings rose 34% over 14 days, driven by detention and reweigh events on the CHI corridor.
Fuel volatility reduced predicted margin by 1.8%
-1.8pp7-day fuel σ at 0.42 vs 0.18 baseline; forward curve +9% Q3 amplifies downside on locked rate contracts.
Trajectory deterioration detected over 48 hours
-4.2ppPredicted margin slid from 12.6% → 8.4% across 6 successive re-scores, breaking the 1σ trajectory band.
Carrier reliability degradation increased margin risk
-1.1ppARX on-time % fell from 94 → 81 over 21 days; detention spike correlates r=0.78 with margin loss.
Contributor split
positive / negativeBaseline
12.6%
Carrier accessorial risk
ARX p87
-1.90pp
91%
Fuel volatility 7d
σ 0.42
-1.80pp
88%
Detention frequency
3.1x peer
-1.10pp
84%
Spot vs contract gap
-6.4%
+0.90pp
86%
Lane congestion index
0.71
-0.70pp
79%
Equipment availability
high
+0.60pp
81%
Customer payment lag
+11d
-0.50pp
74%
Reweigh accuracy
0.97
+0.30pp
92%
Predicted margin
8.4%
Historical comparison
prior shipments — same lane| Shipment | Lane | Pred | Actual | Δ | Conf | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHP-0041002 | CHI→DAL | 9.1% | 8.7% | -0.4 | 81% | May 12 |
| SHP-0040788 | CHI→DAL | 10.3% | 9.9% | -0.4 | 85% | May 09 |
| SHP-0040221 | CHI→DAL | 11.7% | 12.1% | +0.4 | 88% | May 04 |
| SHP-0039804 | CHI→DAL | 12.9% | 13.2% | +0.3 | 90% | Apr 29 |