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criticalLane US-WEST-204 margin -4.8% vs forecast· 12s agohighCarrier ARX detention spike (+27% 24h)· 1m agomedFuel surcharge drift detected — EU corridor· 3m agohighContract #4821 nearing margin floor (2.1%)· 6m agolowModel v3.2 latency p95 above 180ms· 11m agocriticalAnomaly: unbilled accessorials +$182K (7d)· 14m agomedDrift on volume-forecast model lane-cluster 12· 22m agocriticalLane US-WEST-204 margin -4.8% vs forecast· 12s agohighCarrier ARX detention spike (+27% 24h)· 1m agomedFuel surcharge drift detected — EU corridor· 3m agohighContract #4821 nearing margin floor (2.1%)· 6m agolowModel v3.2 latency p95 above 180ms· 11m agocriticalAnomaly: unbilled accessorials +$182K (7d)· 14m agomedDrift on volume-forecast model lane-cluster 12· 22m ago
Explainability Workspace
Prediction
PRED-7748-22
Shipment
SHP-0042189
Lane
CHI → DAL
Customer
Acme Manufacturing
Carrier
ARX Logistics
Model
margin-forecaster v3.2.1
Baseline
12.6%
Predicted
8.4%
-4.2pp
82%as of 2025-05-18 14:22:08 UTC
OverviewSHAP WaterfallReasoningConfidenceDriver EvolutionRisk DecompositionTrajectory ReplayFeature Interactions

Risk Decomposition

variance share
Carrier risk
38%
Fuel exposure
26%
Lane volatility
14%
Customer credit
9%
Accessorial drift
8%
Residual
5%

Margin deterioration reasoning

AI narrative

Carrier accessorial risk increased by 34%

-1.9pp

ARX accessorial filings rose 34% over 14 days, driven by detention and reweigh events on the CHI corridor.

Fuel volatility reduced predicted margin by 1.8%

-1.8pp

7-day fuel σ at 0.42 vs 0.18 baseline; forward curve +9% Q3 amplifies downside on locked rate contracts.

Trajectory deterioration detected over 48 hours

-4.2pp

Predicted margin slid from 12.6% → 8.4% across 6 successive re-scores, breaking the 1σ trajectory band.

Carrier reliability degradation increased margin risk

-1.1pp

ARX on-time % fell from 94 → 81 over 21 days; detention spike correlates r=0.78 with margin loss.