Explainability Workspace
Prediction
PRED-7748-22
Shipment
SHP-0042189
Lane
CHI → DAL
Customer
Acme Manufacturing
Carrier
ARX Logistics
Model
margin-forecaster v3.2.1
Baseline
12.6%
Predicted
8.4%
-4.2pp
82%as of 2025-05-18 14:22:08 UTC
OverviewSHAP WaterfallReasoningConfidenceDriver EvolutionRisk DecompositionTrajectory ReplayFeature Interactions
SHAP Waterfall
baseline → predictedBaseline
12.6%
Carrier accessorial risk
ARX p87
-1.90pp
91%
Fuel volatility 7d
σ 0.42
-1.80pp
88%
Detention frequency
3.1x peer
-1.10pp
84%
Spot vs contract gap
-6.4%
+0.90pp
86%
Lane congestion index
0.71
-0.70pp
79%
Equipment availability
high
+0.60pp
81%
Customer payment lag
+11d
-0.50pp
74%
Reweigh accuracy
0.97
+0.30pp
92%
Predicted margin
8.4%
Top Drivers
narrativeCarrier accessorial risk increased by 34%
-1.9ppARX accessorial filings rose 34% over 14 days, driven by detention and reweigh events on the CHI corridor.
Fuel volatility reduced predicted margin by 1.8%
-1.8pp7-day fuel σ at 0.42 vs 0.18 baseline; forward curve +9% Q3 amplifies downside on locked rate contracts.
Trajectory deterioration detected over 48 hours
-4.2ppPredicted margin slid from 12.6% → 8.4% across 6 successive re-scores, breaking the 1σ trajectory band.
Carrier reliability degradation increased margin risk
-1.1ppARX on-time % fell from 94 → 81 over 21 days; detention spike correlates r=0.78 with margin loss.
Contribution Heatmap
feature × time-72h
-60h
-48h
-36h
-24h
-12h
now
Carrier accessorial risk
Fuel volatility 7d
Detention frequency
Lane congestion index
Customer payment lag
Spot vs contract gap
Equipment availability
Reweigh accuracy